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fyi > Issues March 30, 2008 IssuesWhen Canada's Prime Minister and Ministers of Defence and of Foreign Affairs arrive in Bucharest they will, unless they are leaving the rest of us greatly misled, be bringing with them the view that there will be no Taliban spring offensive. That this view is a disconnect from reality is considered in the following paragraphs and questions to be answered by them upon their return. THE TALIBAN SPRING OFFENSIVE HAS BEGUN "U.S. and NATO military officials dismiss the idea of a Taliban spring offensive and say the only offensive that will take place this year in Afghanistan is one by Western and Afghan troops." because "the Taliban does not have the number of fighters or the military equipment needed to mount a conventional offensive against the U.S., NATO or Afghan troops."(1) This view, expressed in a widely spread article by Associated Press Writer Amir Shah (2), has not been contradicted in Canada. It is true the Taliban can't fight a conventional war because "The foreign troops have air power and smart bombs" (3) It is untrue, however, that these are "a combination that the Taliban still have not figured out how to deal with."(3) They have effectively employed both roadside placed and suicide carried explosives and hit and run attacks. Perhaps the most important being the assault on the Kabul Serena Hotel in January. While "The hotel suffered no major structural damage during the attack." (4) this action destroyed whatever sense of security existed in the capital city. The Taliban spring offensive consists of a continuing and extension territorially of these tactics with the addition of two elements, both of which are already in process and form the reality of what Canadians are being told does not exist. The first element is directed at Kabul. The aim, "to increase pressure around the city, which saw more than 30 bombings last year." and where "Some Nato officials predict that figure could rise above 100 this year". "As close as 20 miles to the city, trucks servicing US bases need protection from local government and hired militia fighters to go further south." is the status of the road south. Recently an ambush of Italian forces took place on the road east which had been considered safe ()and reputedly there are plans for the road north as well. (5) The second element of the Taliban/al Qaeda Campaigns is to Interdict NATO Supply Lines.(6) The Afghanistan Taliban and Pakistan al Qaeda "according to Asia Times Online contacts, will open new fronts in Khyber Agency in Pakistan and Nangarhar province in east Afghanistan and its capital Jalalabad." This "historic belt starting from Peshawar in North-West Frontier Province and running through Khyber Agency to Nangarhar is NATO's life line - 80% of its supplies pass through it. From Nangarhar, the capital Kabul is only six hours away by road" (7)
It was reported that on March 23rd "Some 40 road tankers supplying fuel to American troops in Afghanistan have been destroyed by suspected pro-Taleban militants on the border with Pakistan." (8) "This was the third incident of its kind in the area in three weeks."(9) The area being Torkham "a border crossing town in the Nangarhar province of Afghanistan and the Khyber Agency of Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas, right on the Durand Line border. It is linked by a highway with Jalalabad to the west, Peshawar to the east, and is linked the N-5 National Highway to Karachi - the town is only five kilometres west of the summit of the Khyber Pass. Torkham is the busiest port of entry between Afghanistan and Pakistan. It is also a major transporting, shipping, and receiving site between the two neighboring countries." (10) Despite the protestations of U.S. and NATO military officials who dismiss the idea of a Taliban spring offensive it is underweigh. Question to be answered is when they return from Bucharest will our returning Ministers have become aware of this reality and will Canadians be so informed? (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) _________________________________________________________ (1) "The spring offensive is going to be by our people, as they move out and take advantage of the situation that they helped create through their good works there in the fall of last year," Adm. William Fallon told the House Armed Services Committee. (2) (3) U.S. and NATO military officials dismiss the idea of a Taliban spring offensive and say the only offensive that will take place this year in Afghanistan is one by Western and Afghan troops. But the Taliban does not have the number of fighters or the military equipment needed to mount a conventional offensive against the U.S., NATO or Afghan troops. (4) For example, a Taliban campaign against cell phone companies (who are believed to be assisting the government in tracking Taliban cell phone users) has turned 250,000 southern cell phone users against the Taliban. . . . In response, some cell phone companies in the south have shut down all service, blaming the Taliban attacks. The cell phone users, most of whom have no other access to phones, are furious. The foreign troops have air power and smart bombs, a combination that the Taliban still have not figured out how to deal with. The real enemy is the drug gangs, which are often tribal groups dedicated to getting rich and keeping the government out. (5) Western officials have told The Daily Telegraph that intelligence reports warn of Taliban plans to increase pressure around the city, which saw more than 30 bombings last year. Some Nato officials predict that figure could rise above 100 this year. As close as 20 miles to the city, trucks servicing US bases need protection from local government and hired militia fighters to go further south. "On one convoy last year we were 40 vehicles and only 12 got through," said Sadat Khan, 25, pointing out roughly patched bullet holes in the cab of his truck. Attacks announce insurgent “spring offensive” in Afghanistan The heaviest fighting is likely to take place in Helmand, Kandahar and the neighbouring province of Uruzgan—where Dutch and Australian troops make up the bulk of the ISAF forces. Western commanders see the increasing focus on suicide bombing on softer targets as a response to the failure of more conventional attacks on Western forces, during which the Taliban has suffered heavy casualties. A BBC report at the beginning of February provided an insight into the ability of anti-occupation guerillas to freely operate in rural areas within 100 kilometres of central Kabul insurgents have also struck NATO targets over the past weeks in the capital Kabul and northern Afghan provinces, demonstrating their ability to operate in wider areas of the country. Taliban to launch spring offensive in Afghanistan Report: Forty percent of Afghan aid spent on foreign workers Planning for the Spring Offensive in Afghanistan The chart to the left is a simple strategic organizational chart that shows the logical connections between the direction of the Pakistani Taliban (e.g., lead by Baitullah Mehsud and others) and the Afghani Taliban (e.g., lead by Mohammed Omar). The strategy is multifaceted with dual fronts, but the campaign has as its centerpiece the interdiction of NATO supply lines. The campaign will involve guerrilla tactics (combat from the shadows), insurgent tactics (governance and winning hearts and minds), and the use of terror tactics such as suicide bombers. No Spring Offensive in Afghanistan? _________________________________________________________ The Taliban, according to Asia Times Online contacts, will open new fronts in Khyber Agency in Pakistan and Nangarhar province in east Afghanistan and its capital Jalalabad. the historic belt starting from Peshawar in North-West Frontier Province and running through Khyber Agency to Nangarhar is NATO's life line - 80% of its supplies pass through it. From Nangarhar, the capital Kabul is only six hours away by road. _________________________________________________________ Fuel supplies for US troops hit Some 40 road tankers supplying fuel to American troops in Afghanistan have been destroyed by suspected pro-Taleban militants on the border with Pakistan. The attacks, at the Pakistani border crossing point of Torkham, _________________________________________________________ Torkham is a border crossing town in the Nangarhar province of Afghanistan and the Khyber Agency of Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas, right on the Durand Line border. [1] It is linked by a highway with Jalalabad to the west, Peshawar to the east, and is linked the N-5 National Highway to Karachi - the town is only five kilometres west of the summit of the Khyber Pass. Torkham is the busiest port of entry between Afghanistan and Pakistan. It is also a major transporting, shipping, and receiving site between the two neighboring countries. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Torkham _________________________________________________________ Why the Afghan Taleban feel confident operate freely even in Wardak Province, neighbouring the capital Kabul |
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